Tony Seba: Clean Disruption

In this video, Stanford University economist Professor Tony Seba describes how the industrial age of energy and transportation will be over by 2030. Maybe even before. Exponentially improving technologies such as solar, electric vehicles, and autonomous (self-driving) cars will disrupt and sweep away the energy and transportation industries as we know it. The same Silicon Valley ecosystem that created bit-based technologies that have disrupted atom-based industries is now creating bit- and electron-based technologies that will disrupt atom-based energy industries.

Clean Disruption projections (based on technology cost curves, business model innovation as well as product innovation) show that by 2030:

  • All new energy will be provided by solar and wind.
  • All new mass-market vehicles will be electric.
  • All of these vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving).
  • The new car market will shrink by 80%.
  • Gasoline will be obsolete. Nuclear is already obsolete.
  • Up to 80% of highways will be redundant.
  • Up to 80% of parking spaces will be redundant.
  • The concept of individual car ownership will be obsolete.
  • The Car Insurance industry will be disrupted.

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